The state’s budget handlers correctly say there’s nothing to panic about. For now.
They add that there’s no reason yet to believe the current fiscal year budget requires an adjustment.
But eyeballs are nonetheless beginning to turn and watch the slipping of oil prices.
The budget that went into effect on July 1 for the 2015-16 fiscal year is based on oil being at an annual average of $61 per barrel, according to Greg Albrecht, the state’s chief economist.
In comparison, oil dropped to its lowest level in nearly three months in July, closing repeatedly in the low $50 range.
Analysts are predicting that the dip could persist if international problems continue to mount in Greece, China and Iran. Moreover, Goldman Sachs is predicting that a “negative feedback loop” could push prices even lower.
Albrecht said Louisiana loses $12 million for every $1 decrease in the annual average price of a barrel of oil. “If this is something that is sustained over several weeks, it could possibly be something to be concerned about,” he said. “I don’t worry about the daily prices at all, but the outlook has been weakening.”
If a downward adjustment is needed for what the state has forecasted for oil prices, that would mean less money for the current budget. But in no way is such a thing being signaled at this time.
Sheriffs Deny Vitter
After speaking to some and texting others, U.S. Sen. David Vitter was still unable to convince enough sheriffs to issue an early endorsement for his gubernatorial campaign during their annual convention in Shreveport last month.
The text message obtained by LaPolitics and confirmed as authentic by the Vitter campaign suggested to sheriffs that waiting to endorse, rather than officially backing him this week, would be a poor choice. “A later endorsement would be much, much less significant and helpful,” Vitter wrote in the text.
Elected members who attended the Louisiana Sheriffs’ Assoc. gathering said Vitter pushed the idea hard, but only garnered support from a handful of sheriffs. For an early endorsement, sheriffs would have had to carve out a temporary exception to a new bylaw that prohibits endorsements before qualifying.
The sheriffs have historically endorsed in statewide races during the summer, and in some instances earlier. But following last year’s contentious backing of U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, they decided a change was needed.
Some sheriffs who were interviewed sought to use the new bylaw as a reason to avoid the race for now. They felt Vitter was trying to force their hand. Still, a few said they would end up supporting him anyhow.
The state’s sheriffs will likely meet again in Baton Rouge some time after qualifying in early September to discuss the endorsement topic again, and, possibly, to vote on a candidate to back.
Maness Eyes Senate Seat
After building a political career out of a novice run for the U.S. Senate last year, retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness of Madisonville told LaPolitics he may be ready to do it again in 2016.
“I’ve told Sen. (David) Vitter that I’m extremely interested in the Senate seat if he wins for governor, and he had a very positive response,” said Maness.
Maness could present a minor roadblock for Congressman John Fleming of Shreveport — another likely Senate candidate. Both would run to the right of the field and hope to gain favor with tea party types.
Congressman Charles Boustany and Treasurer John Kennedy are viewed as likely contenders as well.
In the meantime, Maness is prepping his GATOR PAC, a hybrid super PAC, for the fall state elections. He said questionnaires have been sent to candidates and endorsements will soon follow. In addition to the statewide races, Maness said his GATOR PAC may get involved in a few legislative elections. The PAC currently holds $60,000, he added.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who was also a one-time vice presidential candidate, offered supportive words for Maness’ PAC via email. “You bet I’ll be supporting Col. Rob Maness,” wrote Palin. “I am encouraged to hear that Col. Maness may be a candidate in the 2016 Louisiana U.S. Senate race and know he would be a needed veteran’s voice for strong constitutional conservative principals in Washington, D.C. Run Rob Run!”
GOP Followup Endorsements Not Likely
Roger Villere, chairman of the Louisiana Republican Party, said it’s doubtful the party will endorse other statewide candidates for office in the wake of the big nod it doled out recently in the attorney general’s race.
“I don’t see a big movement for endorsements,” he said. “But it could happen. People could organize.”
Organization is how former Congressman Jeff Landry got his party endorsement. He collected enough signatures from the Republican State Central Committee to enable the process to move forward.
There could be some support in legislative races, said Villere.
For instance, an endorsement is expected soon for Biscuit Smith, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, against incumbent Democratic Rep. Dorothy Sue Hill in House District 32. Smith already has the backing of Congressman John Fleming, R-Minden.
That will be the third legislative race the party has gotten involved with; others are endorsements for Beth Mizell in Senate District 12 and Julie Emerson in House District 39.
Pol Wants To Be Both GOP And Dem
Former state Rep. Damon Baldone attempted to change his party affiliation to both Democrat and Republican in a dual registration he attempted with the Terrebonne Parish Registrar of Voters. He was refused, and now he’s taking the matter to court.
Depending on how the 32nd Judicial District rules, it could be a precedent-setting case.
The registrar allowed Baldone to register his party affiliation as “other.” But that was as far as the registrar was willing to go.
“I believe I have the constitutional right to affiliate with both parties,” Baldone, who was a Democrat, told LaPolitics. “When I return to the Legislature, I want to be in both rooms and talk to both sides.”
Baldone said he will qualify next month to run in House District 52, which is being left vacant by House Natural Resources Chairman Gordy Dove, R-Houma, who is term-limited and campaigning for Terrebonne Parish president.
While Baldone, an attorney who describes himself as “100 percent pro-life before and after the child is born,” could have just as easily registered as independent, or non-affiliated, he said he has growing concerns about what a splintered, two-party system could do to the Louisiana Legislature.
“I want to head that off,” said Baldone. “Washington politics have been seeping into Louisiana and it’s time to recognize that many of us share beliefs with both parties.”
Jerome Zeringue, former chairman of the state’s Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, and J.J. Buquet, who owns Buquet Distributing in Houma, are both expected to qualify for the House seat as well. Both are Republicans.
Nonprofit-PAC Combo Eyes Race
The super PAC practice is now nearly fully entrenched in big-time Louisiana politics. With political action committees raising unlimited amounts of money, the next trend to watch for involves associated 501(c)(4) tax-exempt organizations.
The role of such organizations is becoming more common in the presidential race, with candidate Marco Rubio leading the way. And it’s beginning to surface in Louisiana — at least in one race further down the statewide ballot.
John Mathis of Baton Rouge, a businessman who was involved in the 2014 campaign of Congressman Garret Graves, has created the nonprofit Solution Fund in Louisiana to influence this year’s attorney general’s election.
He said he has so far raised $196,000. He’s focusing on social media for now.
While there are restrictions on just how involved a 501(c)(4) can be in elections, many donors are attracted to such dark money groups since donations don’t have to be revealed.
The next move for Solution Fund will be the creation of a related super PAC that’s expected to be supportive of former Congressman Jeff Landry’s run for attorney general.
Super PACs, thanks to a U.S. Supreme Court decision likening money with free speech, are allowed to raise unlimited amounts of contributions so long as they don’t coordinate on strategy with the candidates and campaigns they support.
Players Flock To Legislative Races
Given the treacherous tax votes that state lawmakers took during this year’s regular session, many now find themselves on the defensive as the fall election season kicks into high gear.
Long-timers have certainly been in such a position before. But it’s doubtful they’ve ever had to deal with so many outside players and special interests trying to influence their races.
That’s due in large part to the evolving political landscape, where more money than ever is being dumped into elections. But it’s also attributable to the number of seats that will have fresh faces in them next year.
As of this week, there are 32 wide-open seats in the House and Senate with no incumbents running for re-election. Of this count, 21 seats are vacant because of term limits.
Of the remaining 11, two lawmakers are running for higher office. The rest are trying to switch chambers, either from the House to the Senate or, in one case, a senator is running for the House.
While the Louisiana Assoc. of Business and Industry and the state chapter of Americans For Prosperity have already made big splashes in the legislative election pool with scorecards grading lawmakers’ votes, other groups are gearing up to play in the races as well.
Shipbuilding magnate Boysie Bollinger is said to be working and actively meeting with a diverse group to form a tort reform campaign initiative to influence the fall elections. In addition to donors and business types, the effort is pulling in folks linked to the state’s biggest legacy and pharmacy suits.
U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy had expressed interest earlier this year in reviving the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, which senior U.S. Sen. David Vitter originally created to put more Republicans in the Legislature. That option is looking unlikely today. But conservative activists say Cassidy has said he wants to be involved in the fall legislative elections anyway. To what extent remains to be seen.
The Louisiana Chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business is the latest to come out with its legislative scorecard. It does not bode well for lawmakers, who are already fighting low marks released by other special interests, like LABI and AFP.
Based on votes from the 2014 and 2015 sessions, 27 out of 39 senators failed to achieve a score of 70 percent, which guarantees endorsement eligibility with NFIB. In the House, 54 out of 105 representatives received scores below 70 percent.
State director Dawn Starns said scoring 70 percent or above gives a candidate automatic endorsement eligibility. But NFIB’s PAC board still has to vote on the official backing. And even if a lawmaker fails to score above the benchmark, they can still submit a questionnaire to be considered for an endorsement, just like their challengers.
“We will make an announcement about incumbent endorsements the beginning of the week after qualifying,” Starns said. “We will also do candidate endorsements in some open seats, and we will engage our grassroots outreach during the election cycle using the tools we have — like mail, robocalls, radio and online ads.”
AFP and LABI, of course, made a great deal of noise with their respective scorecards, which were released last month. LABI, in particular, served up failing grades for 94 members of the Legislature for the most recent session, but is still supporting many of them based on their four-year cumulative grades.
Likewise of interest will be the way in which other corners of the larger business lobby will approach the fall elections. The Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Assoc. is promising to spend more cash than ever before, and the Louisiana Chemical Assoc. offered a teaser of sorts with a radio buy during the session.
Should all the groups listed above, plus the others on the edges, get on the same page with messaging that communicates an anti-incumbent sentiment, the legislative races could become much more interesting — not because of who’s on the ballot, but rather because of who’s playing behind the scenes.
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.
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