The 2016 presidential election is 18 months away, yet candidates are already throwing their hats into the ring. At this point, prognostication about who the nominees will be is pure speculation: there are simply too many unforeseen events that could alter the political landscape between now and the party conventions next July. But since the NCAA basketball tournament is over — I did pick Duke to win it all — I will now take a stab at filling in my election brackets.
In the basketball tournament, I always search for an underdog who can upset the top-seeded team. (This year, I picked Notre Dame to knock off Kentucky and missed by one point.) Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton looks a lot like Kentucky to me: the sure thing destined to win it all until a Cinderella comes along.
I’ve said for quite a while there will be no Clinton coronation. Her big lead in the polls is due to name recognition — how many people have heard of Elizabeth Warren or Martin O’Malley? She has a short list of accomplishments (being a woman is not enough), and a long list of scandals even the liberal media are now questioning. She lacks charisma, and has little appeal to key Democrat voting blocks, especially the ideological left. And there is bad blood between the Clintons and President Obama.
Her position as frontrunner, and the decision to get out of the gate early, have put her in an untenable position. She’s dangling out there like a piñata for the right wing to beat on every day with baseball bats. At the same time, disgruntled leftists surreptitiously stab her in the back.
I expect a white knight from the left will jump into the race at the last minute to save the Democrats … and I would put my money on John Kerry, especially if he can claim success in negotiations with Iran.
The selection of convention delegates kicks off next January with the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. There won’t be a lot of delegates at stake, but there will be tremendous media coverage. A poor performance in these contests can be devastating for frontrunners and well-funded candidates, while a strong performance by a dark horse, like Jimmy Carter in 1976, can give a campaign credibility and attract the funding and media attention necessary to propel the candidate forward.
Iowa Democrats have consistently backed their party’s eventual nominee. In terms of a possible Clinton/Kerry race, it should be noted that Kerry won the Iowa caucus in 2004 with 38 percent of the vote, while Hillary Clinton came in third in 2008 with just 29 percent. This is one reason Clinton is driving around the Hawkeye state in a van trying to connect with average voters.
Iowa Republicans are a different matter. In 2012, Rick Santorum came out of nowhere to edge out Mitt Romney; and in 2008, Mike Huckabee beat Romney by nearly 10 percentage points. There’s a sizable bloc of both social conservatives and libertarians in Iowa. (Ron Paul came in a strong third, with 21 percent of the vote, in 2012.)
I expect Huckabee and Rand Paul to run well there in 2016, although Huckabee will have to compete with Ben Carson and Rick Santorum for the social conservative vote, while Paul will have to battle Ted Cruz for the libertarians and constitutionalists. A poor showing by either would be bad news for their campaigns.
Meanwhile, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio will be fighting for the “mainstream” vote. But their expectations in Iowa are relatively modest; so a strong performance — 20 percent or more — would boost their campaigns, while a “poor” showing is not likely to derail them.
Finally, Iowa presents a huge opportunity for “dark horse” candidates like Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal and Carly Fiorina if they’re willing to knock on doors and kiss a lot of babies. A strong showing will give their campaigns credibility, while a weak showing could end it all for them.
New Hampshire — the “Live Free or Die” state — has a strong conservative/libertarian tradition, and allows independents to vote in either party’s primary election. This favors candidates like Rand Paul, who appeal to independents. Mike Huckabee captured 11 percent of the vote in the state in 2008, but he may have trouble getting back into double digits if Ben Carson is in the race.
Bush, Walker and Rubio need to do well, especially if their performance in Iowa was disappointing. My prediction is Rand Paul and Scott Walker will come out of New Hampshire with a lot of momentum.
As for the Democrats, John Kerry won New Hampshire in 2004 while Hillary Clinton beat Obama in 2008. If there’s a Clinton/Kerry match up next January, I’d put my money on John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts.
In February, the focus shifts to South Carolina, a socially conservative state where religion matters a great deal. This will be a test of Rand Paul’s outreach to minorities and young voters: the best his father ever did was a fourth-place finish with 13 percent of the vote in 2012. Rand will have to do better to demonstrate he has broad-based appeal.
South Carolina will also bring a showdown among Huckabee, Carson, and Santorum. If these candidates keep splitting the social conservative vote, they will all be marginalized.
Among the mainstream candidates, it will be important for Walker to show he can appeal to Southern voters before the big Florida primary in March that promises to be a slugfest between native sons Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. South Carolina is also critical for Ted Cruz as he tries to carve out a niche from all of these blocs. But you only get one vote, and I suspect Cruz will end up being the second or third choice of many Republicans, and the top choice of few.
Nineteen states have their primary elections in March — Louisiana’s is March 5 — and I predict Clinton will be out of the race before the month is over. John Kerry will be the clear leader for the Democrat nomination if he decides to run. (But remember, I picked Notre Dame to knock off Kentucky.)
Among Republicans, I think the field will be down to four: Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee. But there may be no clear leader, which will make for a very interesting convention.
My guess is the presidential race will come down to Kerry/Warren versus Walker/Rubio. But don’t bet the bank on it.
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