With expectations mounting that Gov. Bobby Jindal will soon announce his campaign for president, attention is turning to not only whom he will bring along with him but also what will transpire politically back home during the transition.
“Things are in motion. The announcement is coming,” said a senior-level source in the cabinet. “It’s no secret that he’s not around. But some of the people close to him are keeping their plays close to their vest and trying to figure out where they’re going to land.
“But you do have a few people who are willing to die on the sword for him and will ride it out in hopes they can come along.”
Another source with the state Republican Party said an official announcement is expected after this election cycle wraps up; Jindal indicated the same thing during a recent interview on MSNBC — while qualifying that he’s still undecided.
“You’re going to start to see some shuffling around of players sooner [rather] than later,” the party official said.
A longtime lobbyist added, “cabinet-level people are already starting to make moves and inquire about positions — not necessarily on the secretary level, because some of them have retirement and other issues, but definitely with the deputies and those in proximity.”
Just last week, Jindal announced that Stafford Palmieri has been moved from the position of policy director to assistant chief of staff. Natalie LaBorde has taken Palmieri’s spot, having previously served as senior policy advisor.
This kind of situation is routine toward the end of a governor’s final term. But Jindal’s political schedule is moving it up by a few months.
As for the 2015 regular session, lawmakers say there’s a real appetite growing for cutting tax exemptions in order to create revenue, despite Jindal’s long-held stance that such policy maneuvers equate to tax increases.
“None of us want to run for re-election next year on cutting higher ed and health care to the bone,” said a lawmaker. “A lot of things will be on the table in 2015: the e-fairness tax, the film tax credits, the cigarette tax. We’ll see if they actually move. The game of chicken I see playing out is Jindal preserving his anti-tax pledge and the Legislature overriding him.”
Even though sources contend Revenue Secretary Tim Barfield has been encouraging the governor to find a peaceful middle ground, Jindal can probably avoid an override, which is probably unlikely anyhow, by simply stalling the bills he opposes during the short two-month session.
Lobbyists say Jindal may still have sway over three very important pressure points in the process: House speaker Chuck Kleckley, R-Lake Charles; Senate president John Alario, R-Westwego; and Senate Revenue and Fiscal Affairs chairman Neil Riser, R-Columbia.
Regardless, Jindal will have skin in the game since he will have to propose a 2015-16 budget that could have a hole as large as $1.2 billion or more, based on the short-term financing used in the current budget and predictions recently released to the Joint Legislative Committee on the Budget.
The Reddening Of Louisiana
The Louisiana Family Forum has released its latest scorecard on the 2014 votes taken by state legislators.
While it shows how legislators match up with the faith-based group’s policy priorities, the scorecard also offers a glimpse of just how conservative the Legislature has become over the past 10 years.
“When we started this in 2004, there were about 26 lawmakers in the House and Senate who voted pro-life and pro-family, in general,” LFF president Gene Mills told LaPolitics. “This year the number is about 83 or 84.”
The real milestone belongs to Sen. A.G. Crowe, R-Slidell, who, for the 10th consecutive year, has scored 100 percent on the scorecard.
One issue not included in the rankings was the surrogacy births bill. “We left that off because there may have been some confusion on what our position was,” Mills said.
At its September reception, the Family Forum will present a slate of Republicans with Life and Liberty Awards. Two Democrats will also get awards: Reps. Neil Abramson of New Orleans and Katrina Jackson of Monroe. “That’s not unusual anymore,” said Mills. “There are usually a few stalwarts.”
On the horizon, the Family Forum is working on election guides for the federal races and maybe judicial contests, too. Candidates will not be endorsed, but will be quizzed on important issues. Like the scorecards, the election guides will be distributed to pastors around Louisiana.
New PACs Surface In Senate Race
Incumbent U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, a New Orleans Democrat, and her lead GOP challenger Congressman Bill Cassidy of Baton Rouge, are running close together when it comes to money. Landrieu has $5.5 million to the Cassidy’s $5.6 million in the bank.
In what will be a tight election that’s tracked nationally, however, it’s doubtful money will be an issue for either candidate.
To that end, the most recent fundraising news comes from the side of Landrieu, who has joined with other Democratic women, including senators up for re-election, to form a joint fundraising committee called Blue Senate 2014.
Cassidy, meanwhile, has received a financial boost from Citizens for Conservative Leadership, a super PAC that’s new to the Louisiana fray.
Its six-figure effort includes a television ad, which mirrors big-budget movie trailers, that’s running statewide on both broadcast and cable outlets. The digital advertising plan went live a couple of weeks ago with the launch of SenateMatch.com, a unique take on dating sites that will be marketed using web spots.
Spokesman Scott Hobbs said, “In the statewide television campaign, we take the dramatic, movie trailer route with an ad that will cut through the back-and-forth clutter, and clearly encapsulate what this one Senate seat could mean to our country.”
Citizens for Conservative Leadership is headed by Josh Robinson, a longtime political consultant and Cassidy’s former chief of staff. Hobbs and Jason Hebert of the Political Firm created the television ad, and Harris Media is handling the digital campaign.
Ground Game Could Decide Senate Race
While hopes are high for turnout this fall, a new report from the Center for the Study of the American Electorate suggests that Louisiana’s midterm face-offs may amount to nothing special in terms of votes cast.
Compared to 2010, the 25 states that have already conducted statewide primaries this year experienced a decline in turnout to the tune of 3.5 percent. Of the 25, only three had higher figures than four years ago.
Yet there are too many moving pieces to make the comparison perfect here. Louisiana arguably has one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation to help generate excitement among voters — not to mention rather juicy congressional races on the eastern side of the state.
The possibility of an undecided balance in the upper chamber after November is what makes the Bayou State so special, with its last-in-the-nation pre-Christmas runoff. Louisiana voters could literally choose which way the U.S. Senate leans.
Of course, if the Senate makeup is somewhat clearer after the November primaries, and Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, and Congressman Bill Cassidy, a Republican, ride off toward a December runoff as expected, excitement could wane in Louisiana.
But any guess as to the partisan makeup of the Senate is speculation at this point. If nothing else, the findings in the new report underline how important the ground games will be for the campaigns and parties in Louisiana.
On the Democratic side, officials are continuing a process implemented years ago that moves the party further away from last-minute efforts to get out the vote. For many elections, a late focus on the ground was a hallmark for Louisiana Dems, but that isn’t the case now, they contend, as voters who were cultivated during the last presidential election are being convinced that there’s plenty of action on the midterm ballot.
The focus these days is less on voter registration and more on maintaining quality contacts. “It’s not enough to show up the month before the election and ask for their vote,” said Kirstin Alvanitakis, communications director for Louisiana Democratic Party.
Sources close to the Landrieu campaign say they’re relying heavily on a metrics-driven system, building off of the so-called “big data” push overseen by president Barack Obama’s team.
“In particular, you can expect them to zero in on white women, specifically independents,” said a consultant. “The old system of bringing a box of checks and a box of t-shirts to New Orleans to hire as many election-day workers as possible, and doing nothing else, isn’t going to work anymore. They know this.”
Republicans, who were behind the data curve in recent presidential elections, have invested millions in Louisiana, building a model based on precinct captains and capturing voter information early in the field.
The project, recently dubbed GeauxRed, has been chugging along for more than a year, and has already identified more than 1,000 captains, said Jason Doré, executive director of the Louisiana Republican Party. Like Democrats, Republicans have established field offices around the state.
“The key has been keeping in contact with these voters without burning them out with too many emails and phone calls,” he said. “There’s a real vacuum for this work and we’re filling it. Longterm, we’re laying the foundation for future races for governor and president.”
While super PACs and outsider groups have yet to co-opt the ground game in a meaningful way, some organizations, like the conservative Americans For Prosperity, are making a go of it. Political observers expect AFP to be out and about on election day.
The organization already has one field office in Baton Rouge, where it’s headquartered, and one each in New Orleans and Lafayette. There’s also a satellite office in Shreveport.
In addition, religious leaders around the state are eager to get involved in the ground game and motivate their troops.
“We understand that the three equal branches have not been treated as equal as they should be, and we all realize that it may be up to the Senate to ratify the next member of the Supreme Court,” said a source involved with faith-based politics. “The nation teeters on just a one-vote margin on the court. Louisiana’s next senator could make the difference in who gets appointed.”
Angelle Exploring Election Angles
What is public service commissioner Scott Angelle of Breaux Bridge going to do? The Republican has been rumored to be considering either the governor’s race next year or the contest for lieutenant governor, a post he once filled on an interim basis.
If he can unify the vote in Acadiana, a region where other major candidates have yet to surface, he could be a formidable contender.
When asked by LaPolitics about his plans, Angelle hinted at a decision being made sooner rather than later. “September is a great time in Louisiana, with hunting, football, food and festivals,” he said. “It’s also a great time for political announcements.”
Supporters are said to be nudging him toward the governor’s race, where they see an opening for a conservative who would not only carry a large regional base, but also successfully court white Democrats and moderate Republicans.
For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.
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