STATE GOP FACES TRANSITION

Jeremy Alford Thursday, January 21, 2016 Comments Off on STATE GOP FACES TRANSITION
STATE GOP FACES TRANSITION

As the next governor and Legislature segue into a new term, the Louisiana Republican Party is transitioning into a new era as well.

Its top leadership role is up for grabs as questions percolate about which elected officials will claim ownership of the party infrastructure.

The map forward is somewhat clearer on the Republican side than the Democratic, with GOP Chair Roger Villere seeking re-election and 140 central committee members who are considered his allies running unopposed on the March 5 ballot.

The state central committee is the guiding body of the party. Its members are elected from districts throughout Louisiana. They, in turn, elect the chairman.

There is so far no organized opposition to Villere. There was, however, a push to get legislators involved in the central committee this year — especially legislators from the corner of the House that was displeased with the way the party pushed back on the 2015 tax increases.

With Gov. Bobby Jindal and U.S. Sen. David Vitter exiting the elected class, there’s been some consternation over who’ll step up to lead the party from a promotional perspective. In other words, who will help with fundraising and seek to influence key decisions?

Had Vitter won his bid for governor, he would have been that individual, taking Jindal’s place as the ringleader. When it comes right down to it, Jindal left a void in the position long ago to pursue his presidential ambitions. Since then, Congressman Charles Boustany, U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, Majority Whip Steve Scalise and others have stepped up.

Looking ahead, it’ll probably continue to be a team effort. Party leaders right now are breathing a sigh of relief about moving beyond a state GOP fractured along Jindal-Vitter lines. The coming change will allow them to work more efficiently across the spectrum.

Some will have larger roles in this effort than others. An example is Attorney General-elect Jeff Landry, already a longtime party activist. He’s ambitious, and sees a future for himself that goes beyond the A.G. office. He also has ideas about what should happen to the GOP after this transition.

Landry is headlining a fundraiser for the party in January, and more is expected. If rank-and-file GOPers are looking anywhere for the next figurehead, it could be Landry, according to central committee members interviewed.

Cassidy is less interested in playing kingmaker, which isn’t his style. But he can be expected to be a staple of party politics in the years to come.

It’s noteworthy that both men have former party staffers on their teams — Austin Stukins, the party’s former political director, is a Landry staffer, and James Quinn, a one-time executive director, is Cassidy’s chief of staff.

As for the House Republican Caucus, Rep. Lance Harris of Alexandria has already been re-elected as chairman.

But there may need to be some organizational overhauls should Speaker Pro Tem Walt Leger, the New Orleans Democrat being backed by the governor-elect, assume the role of speaker. Harris will be busy enough on the floor in the coming sessions. A few lawmakers say they’d like to see him select a spokesperson from inside the rails to lead regular opposition press conferences while he leads the caucus.

In a coming column, I’ll look at  what’s ahead for the Louisiana Democratic Party in 2016.

Possibilities In Senate Race

At year’s end, there were 15 politicos — some running, some thinking about it and some being encouraged — in the hunt to replace U.S. Sen. David Vitter in 2016.

The freshest possibility of the bunch is state Rep. Brett Geymann, the term-limited Republican from Lake Charles who’s been openly campaigning for the presumably vacant 3rd Congressional District.

“We’ve been in conversations with some folks, not initiated by us, about the Senate race,” Geymann said. “But we are deeply focused on the 3rd Congressional District.”

The 3rd District will presumably be vacant because Republican Congressman Charles Boustany of Lafayette announced from his family home that he too will be a candidate for the U.S. Senate.

Zach Dasher, the Republican who was narrowly edged out of the 5th Congressional District runoff in 2014, has been approached about running as well. Dasher, a cousin of the Duck Dynasty family, said in an interview that a new cybersecurity business is keeping him busy, but that he hasn’t ruled out a run.

“Any time you are conservative in a state with an open seat, you have a lot of people expressing interest, and you have others who are vicious and do not want you to run. I have not made a decision on what I’m going to do politically,” he said, adding that a final decision would be made after Christmas.

Already announced via a holiday card sent to friends and family is former Congressman Joseph Cao, a New Orleans attorney.

In neighboring Jefferson Parish, outgoing Parish President John Young also announced he’s considering the race. Young ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor in the fall. Both he and Cao are Republicans.

Another new Republican name is Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta of Metairie. Skrmetta is telling donors he’s creating an exploratory committee. He told LaPolitics he’ll decide by early March. “We’ll be reasonably quiet until then,” he said.

Democrats are eager to find the next John Bel Edwards, who won an improbable Democratic victory for governor. But national Democrats haven’t yet been able to convince former Congressman Don Cazayoux to run. He told LaPolitics he’s not even considering the race.

However, state Sen. Gary Smith, Jr., of St. Charles Parish is, and he’s had several conversations with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. His move gives the Democratic side of the contest some heft.

Caroline Fayard of New Orleans, who previously ran for lieutenant governor, remains in the mix as well. She’s looking at the race and being encouraged by Democrats in the region.

Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell of Elm Grove is the only Democrat thinking about the race who has been included in a poll so far. He’s a close ally of Edwards and would run well in north Louisiana.

Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, who’s enjoyed a strong position in recent polls, will announce his plans after Christmas. So will state Treasurer John Kennedy. Both are Republicans.

Congressman John Fleming, a Republican from Minden, is actively campaigning and building a staff, as is retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness, who ran as a Republican in the 2014 U.S. Senate election. Both men look to be candidates.

State Rep. Paul Hollis, a Republican from Covington, is thinking about joining the field, just like Alcohol and Tobacco Control Commissioner Troy Hebert, a former state senator with no party affiliation.

It should be an active and early race in 2016, especially since the contest is already drawing national groups, starting with the Citizens United Political Victory Fund, the affiliated PAC of Citizens United. The political action committee has gotten ahead of the field and endorsed Fleming. Sources close to both sides expect Citizens to start spending money as soon as this month to help clear a path for Fleming.

The PAC has already maxed out to the congressman. But it could start spending its early dollars on radio, digital spots and full-page newspaper ads.

More interesting are the suggestions that Karl Rove’s American Cross Roads super PAC is pushing Boustany and is looking to serve as his chief financial surrogate. Sources say a few big-name donors out of New Orleans have already signed on.

Even Hebert is positioned for some outside help from the Centrist Project, which is looking to recruit independent candidates in races around the nation. “We’ve spoken to Troy Hebert and we’ll be talking to him again,” said Jim Jonas, a consultant for the Centrist Project. “We’re looking at a lot of states, but Louisiana could become a priority.”

Last year, the Centrist Project put resources behind independent Greg Orman in Kansas, who wasn’t expected to be competitive. The group brought him to within 10 points of U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts in the run-off. Hebert said he could chart a similar path for himself as an unaffiliated candidate, should he decide to run. “Voter frustrations are coming to a boil, and I don’t mean crawfish,” Hebert told LaPolitics.

Maness likewise got a boost from the right, with endorsements from 55 tea party leaders from around Louisiana. Retired U.S. Army General Paul Vallely, a senior military analyst for Fox News, has also endorsed Maness.

National Political Focus For Landrieu

Now that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has decided against the U.S. Senate race, he appears to be slowly stepping into more of a national role and is already becoming a voice in the developing presidential race.

As a surrogate for Hillary Clinton, Landrieu could eventually find himself deeper inside Beltway circles. But his foray into national issues isn’t just about presidential politics.

Landrieu was elected second vice president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors this summer, which positions him to take over as president in June, 2017.

For now, however, it’s difficult to miss his plays in the presidential race. Landrieu released a statement to the press via email calling Donald Trump’s most recent comments about Muslims “absolutely disgraceful.” Landrieu asked Americans to “reject [Trump’s] poisonous rhetoric, which is reminiscent of David Duke’s racism.”

Chemical Group Mulls Appeal 

It may be a few weeks until the Louisiana Chemical Assoc. (LCA) decides whether it will appeal a decision from a district court judge paving the way for its members to pay more than $100 million in increased taxes.

Judge Michael Caldwell ruled that the state House obtained enough votes to pass a temporary suspension of the one penny sales tax exemption on business utilities. The ruling came in spite of the LCA’s legal arguments against it.

Rob Landry, a spokesman for the chemical association, said a decision to appeal will come soon. “We’re going to take our time with it and meet with as many people as possible to discuss this,” he said in an interview.

LCA challenged the constitutionality of HCR 8 — filed by Rep. Jack Montoucet, D-Crowley — which was passed during this year’s regular session. The bill argued that tax measures must pass both chambers by a two-thirds vote. But Caldwell sided with the Legislature in ruling that a 53-vote majority was enough for passage.

The decision was a victory for Gov.-elect John Bel Edwards, who should be able to use the money to craft his first budget proposal — unless the chemical association decides to move forward with its appeal and taxes continue to be paid under protest.

Changes May Come To Senate

With a handful of high-profile senators coming off of an election cycle during which they dug in deep for U.S. Sen. David Vitter, there are expectations for change in the upper chamber’s chairmanships.

“There will probably be some changes, and I am trying to do my best to minimize them as much as possible,” said Senate President John Alario.

Alario will have to secure his own position as Senate president. But all signs point to a return to the norm, with Alario saying his conversations with Gov.-elect John Bel Edwards have “all been positive.”

For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.

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