CAN MANESS MAKE SPARKS IN SENATE BID?

Jeremy Alford Thursday, August 7, 2014 Comments Off on CAN MANESS MAKE SPARKS IN SENATE BID?
CAN MANESS MAKE SPARKS IN SENATE BID?

While his campaign for the U.S. Senate has so far been defined by money and endorsements from national tea party groups, retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness of Mandeville could soon have the backing of the Family Research Council’s Action PAC, or political action committee.

According to the Maness campaign, cash is likely attached, although how much is unknown. A spokesperson said a public announcement with more details can be expected in the coming weeks.

Based in D.C. and run by former state Rep. Tony Perkins, FRC is among the highest profile faith-based lobbies in the country. The endorsement could lead to an increase in donations from the religious right, not to mention extra foot soldiers.

If nothing else, it will prompt mainline Republicans to ask why the FRC chose Maness over Congressman Bill Cassidy, R-Baton Rouge. Even though polling shows Cassidy with a stronger chance of toppling incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu, factions on the far right have been harping for months about Cassidy not being conservative enough.

The move also will pile more grief on party diehards who are already worried about Maness’ ability to soften Cassidy’s field position.

Maness has collected more than $1.2 million in donations, due in large part to earlier endorsements from the Tea Party Leadership Fund and Tea Party Express. This month, he launched a new set of statewide radio ads featuring former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

With one major U.S. Senate upset from tea party forces in Texas, a narrow defeat in Mississippi and Louisiana in the middle, the question now becomes whether Maness can create sparks in his own bid. With small but climbing poll numbers, he’s gone from a political sideshow to a factor that can no longer be ignored.

Politicos, however, agree he can’t win without a political miracle or a serious blunder by Cassidy. But he can continue to inflict damage on the GOP frontrunner.

“It has been a huge pain to worry more about Maness than Mary lately,” said a source connected closely to the Cassidy campaign. “He’s turned into a nuisance candidate, like a fly you can’t swat.”

“I knew I would probably get a lot of tea party support because of my constitutional positions, but I wasn’t expecting the backing of these national groups,” said Rob Maness, the grandson of a farmer and janitor and son of another Air Force man.

But Maness’ personal background has been overshadowed by his tea party leanings. His new “Contract With Louisiana” focuses on “liberty, prosperity and certainty.” He wants to “clean up the D.C. swamp” and protect individual freedoms.

He recently stared down Donald Trump in a private disagreement over whether he should drop out to help Congressman Bill Cassidy.

“My guys have seen the colonel come out,” he said in an interview. “I can get kind of grisly.”

While all this might fit the tea party archetype, Maness’ campaign is a far cry from the models that have been successful in other states. He’s not an elected official; he isn’t running in a closed primary; and there are two very strong lead candidates in the race.

Granted, Maness has received donations from the Senate Conservatives Fund, as have tea partiers in other states. But critics wonder whether the fund can continue to raise money after the recent loss in Mississippi by tea party favorite Chris McDaniel — the state senator who fell short by 6,000 votes of taking out Sen. Thad Cochran.

Maness, political observers argue, is a product of the times — meaning any other candidate who would have framed himself early on as the tea party flag bearer could have landed the same degree of support.

“All Maness is doing is making it harder for Cassidy to win in the primary,” said a longtime consultant. “He can only get to where he needs to be by attacking Cassidy, and that’s knocking votes off of Cassidy. But the rub is we don’t know where those votes are going.”

They could be going to the Democratic incumbent, Sen. Mary Landrieu, who needs all the help she can get. In particular, pollsters are watching to see whether Cassidy is losing support among Republican women due to Maness’ email bombs, which haven’t caught the attention of the mainstream media yet. The attacks haven’t targeted GOP women in particular, but they represent a swing group of great interest to the number-crunchers.

“Landrieu only has about 3 percent support from Republican women and she needs a lot more. She’s used to running better than that,” said a pollster. “This could get a lot worse if Maness is able to pick up another million or so and go on TV. He’s the unknown factor in this race.”

On the ground, Maness has taken some hits. The rank-and-file tea party groups in Louisiana have so far stayed quiet, and the St. Tammany Republican Parish Executive Committee, on which Maness has a seat, has voted to endorse Cassidy. St. Tammany is also home turf for Hollis.

As Maness continues to hack away at Cassidy’s potential votes — not enough to win, perhaps, but enough to get second looks — the congressman’s supporters are wondering how long it will take for Republican surrogates to fire back at him.

For Cassidy, it’s an easy call. After all, a hard and fast rule of going negative dictates that you should never attack someone who’s behind you in the polls. Cassidy, though, is surely looking over his shoulder and wondering what the grisly colonel will do next.

 

Marijuana Reform

Marijuana advocates, who feel that lawmakers are ignoring them, recently held a rally at the State Capitol to gain traction for their chosen issue. But they did so the weekend after the legislative session ended. Lawmakers had gone home and hardly anyone was at work in the building. The situation probably did little to dispel the perception that pot smokers can be forgetful.

Luckily for those at the rally, at the same time they were voicing their views in Baton Rouge, the Louisiana State Bar Assoc., which was meeting in Destin, Fla., adopted a resolution backing efforts to classify simple possession of marijuana as a misdemeanor, rather than a felony.

Lawmakers had failed to advance similar legislation by Sen. J.P. Morrell, D-New Orleans, during the recent session. But the bar’s move is an early sign that the proposal will likely be back up for debate in 2015. Kelly Ponder, communications director for the bar, said, “There was a spirited debate and a number of people spoke both for and against the resolution.”

The measure was presented by Robert A. Kutcher and Thomas C. Cerullo, members of the bar from the 24th Judicial District. It states that “appropriate incremental penalties for habitual offenders” should be included in any model legislation.

Greg Thompson, legal advisor for Louisianans for Responsible Reform, said it’s a major step forward after a session in which lawmakers shut down every attempt to reclassify marijuana. “It goes to show the extent to which the issue is becoming more mainstream and not just a fringe issue,” he said. “There’s a broad coalition forming around these issues.”

 

Statewides Enjoy High Favorables

According to results from the annual spring survey by Southern Media and Opinion Research, Louisiana’s treasurer, secretary of state and agriculture commissioner all share decent numbers heading into the final year of their current term.

After 14 years in the position, Treasurer John Kennedy posted the healthiest numbers with 68 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable and just 18 percent undecided. Out of the three Republican incumbents, he also ran best among black voters, with 69 percent favorable. But that can perhaps be chalked up to name recognition. Targeted direct mail pieces pointing to his GOP stances have knocked that figure down in a few of his previous races.

SMOR partner Bernie Pinsonat said the numbers posted by Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain are notable, with 59 percent favorable, 11 percent unfavorable and 29 percent undecided. These figures are interesting because they indicate that Strain, who was elected in 2008, could be on a fast track to catching up with the kind of figures usually reserved for longer-serving statewide officials.

“I see him all over the state at different events,” said Pinsonat. “Really, these statewide officials don’t always have to do that, but he does. He’s one of those 24-7 guys.”

A native of Covington, Strain actually polled best in north Louisiana, with a 62 percent favorable there.

Secretary of State Tom Schedler, who took office in 2010, received 43 percent favorable, 15 percent unfavorable and 41 percent unknown. He had slightly higher favorables among both Republican and Democratic voters, but his undecided/unknown figures remained in the 40s with those groups.

Considering Schedler had a rather smooth transition after Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne vacated the post, and he hasn’t yet been forced to introduce himself statewide in a real way, political observers see the numbers as a solid foundation to build on.

 

Senate Race Reaches To Parish Level

While it may be too early to identify what the swing parishes will be in the developing U.S. Senate race, Republicans appear to be putting an early focus on St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parishes, and, to a lesser extent, Washington, St. Helena and Livingston Parishes.

Officials in St. Tammany, in particular, tell LaPolitics that the campaign of Congressman Bill Cassidy has invested in an extensive field operation in the area.

“That makes sense at first blush. That was also where we opened our first office outside of Baton Rouge this cycle,” said a source with the state GOP, adding that his party believes it’s an area where incumbent U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu has “over-performed” in the past. “That’s a region where we saw a lot of people voting for John McCain for president, and then also for Mary Landrieu.”

A Democratic operative said they’re eyeing the region as well, due in large part to the suburbanization of what used to be a landscape peppered with rural communities. “The old style of politics there is falling by the wayside, so there’s a void in that structure and we’re all trying to figure it out,” said the operative. “It’s also a major population hub. Those parishes have some big (precinct) boxes.”

In 2008, Landrieu gained ground in the GOP strongholds of St. Tammany and Tangipahoa, which together make up 8 percent of the state’s population. The 2008 Republican margin of victory in Tangipahoa was only three points, down from eight points in 2002. The margin in St. Tammany shrank from 36 to 24 points over the same period.

Landrieu also managed to flip nearby Washington Parish in 2002 and narrowly maintained it in the last election.

Cassidy’s campaign was recently endorsed by the St. Tammany Republican Parish Executive Committee.

 

Gallot Gives Up Bid For Judgeship

After roughly six months on the campaign trail, state Sen. Rick Gallot, D-Ruston, has withdrawn his candidacy for the open district judgeship in Lincoln and Union parishes.

Even though Gallot walked into the 3rd Judicial District Court race with high name recognition, he said his heart wasn’t in it. He was concerned about giving up his Senate seat and his private practice.

“I simply could not get my spirit and gut behind it. If I’d listened to my wife six months ago, this wouldn’t have happened,” he said, laughing. “I really struggled during the last month of the session with the pros and cons, and I concluded that I just didn’t want to run.”

For now, Gallot said he’s committed to seeking two more terms in the Senate. Before his announcement that he was running for judge, Gallot was often mentioned as a potential candidate for attorney general or lieutenant governor. But he said those possibilities are far from his mind with the rest of summer ahead and two small children at home.

“I’m not going to rule anything out,” he added. “But right now, all I want to do is take my kids to their swimming lessons.”

 

For more Louisiana political news, visit www.LaPolitics.com or follow Jeremy Alford on Twitter @LaPoliticsNow.

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